Tuapse - a Russian city on the Black Sea, north-west of Sochi. One of Russia's 10 largest refineries is on fire. Ukrainian drones hit it again on April 16, 20, and 28. Twenty-four oil tanks - destroyed. The fire reached residential buildings. Locals evacuated. The sea - covered in oil slicks.

"Rain of oil" - that is how residents describe it. Drops of oil falling from the sky next to the fire, covering streets, cars, children's hands. The contamination has been recorded 57 kilometres from the site of the strike. The beaches are dark. Groundwater - contaminated. "People used to envy us for living by the sea. Nobody envies us anymore," one resident said.

What is particularly interesting in this story is not the strikes themselves - those are routine. What is interesting is that Russian propagandists have, for the first time, started criticising the Kremlin. State TV host Vladimir Solovyov openly admitted: "We are at war. The Ukrainians hit us hard in Tuapse. They are hitting us everywhere."

Influencer Viktoriya Bonya, who served for years as the digital face of the regime, is now talking about peace and "ecological catastrophe". Retired general Shamanov said: "This is a total humiliation of Russian forces. Where is Russian military power?"

When Russian propagandists start asking questions out loud - it does not mean the regime is falling. It means even they have a limit on what they can sell as victory. Tuapse is that limit for this week. What will be next week's?

The Balkans should pay attention. Because when Russian propagandists start to doubt, it triggers a domino effect. Balkan states that have for years held a soft stance towards Moscow will start to feel cornered if it becomes clear that the Kremlin is really losing. Every Balkan "friend of Putin" is watching this and starting to reconsider. Even when they do not say it out loud.