The numbers Antonio Guterres announced at the UN meeting turn already heavy news into a catastrophe. 32 million people live below the poverty line. Another 45 million risk falling into extreme hunger. If the Middle East conflict drags on, the world may be heading into a global recession.

The World Food Programme has said what every humanitarian worker knows: "The solution to the food crisis lies in a ceasefire". The solution is political, not operational. No matter how many convoys you send from Brussels to Beirut, if the bombs are falling the convoys stop.

The main hit is in Lebanon. Because of the Israeli attacks, the food chain is broken. Agriculture destroyed. The generations that will grow up in these villages won't even remember a time when there was standard supply - they will only remember hunger.

Guterres warns of a global recession. That means: even when you in Skopje or Bitola read the prices of sunflower oil, flour, bread - that is part of the same curve that starts in Iranian and Lebanese countryside. The Balkans tasted this during the pandemic. We remember how "distant crises" turned into prices at the corner shop.

On April 24, Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for three weeks. Both sides accuse each other of violations. In front of the world - that is the only thin thread of hope. Behind it, the UN numbers are these: 45 million. Behind every figure is a person.