Tuapse, the Russian city on the Black Sea, is bracing for a second wave of „oil rain". Forecasters put the chance of rainfall on 1 and 2 May at up to 80%, while the local refinery still smoulders quietly after a fourth strike by Ukrainian armed forces. When the smoke from the fires meets the rain, you get something neither rain nor air should be carrying - particles of oil, soot and chemical residue, falling on streets, cars and greenery.

The earlier strike in April has already left traces. For nearly two weeks the city's residents complained of pollution, the smell of oil in the air, and a layer of black dust on cars. This time, if the rain falls on a cold, unsealed industrial zone, the effect will be sharper. The authorities are warning citizens to stay indoors and to avoid using rainwater collected from courtyards.

The statement of one resident, picked up by local media, says it all: „We put it out, then it spreads again. My God, when will this end? Poor city." That isn't a politician's quote. That is the reality of a man living in a refinery town at the moment its energy infrastructure has become a military target.

Ukrainian social-media channels announced the latest strike with messages like „we continue" and „fourth miss". They were doing both at once - training in discipline and a measurement in war. The war is no longer fought only with rockets - it is fought with repetition. And a fourth hit on the same place is not an error. It is a message.

For Balkan readers who see this as distant news - it isn't. Tuapse is one of the key Russian Black Sea ports for oil shipment - the same oil that, via the Bosphorus, reaches the Balkans, Turkey, Italy. What happens with that refinery is felt in the price of petrol and diesel across Europe. When Russian infrastructure burns four times in the same spot, the war isn't „over". The war has simply moved to another place - to where the bills are written.