China is watching the American war on Iran and taking notes. Not just as an industrial spy, but as an army that last fought a real battle before 1979 - when it invaded Vietnam. Seven decades go by without real experience. That's generations.

The Iran war, now in its third month, gives Beijing a window. Iranians have found ways to bypass the American Patriot and THAAD anti-missile systems. With cheap Shahed drones and low-cost ballistic missiles. It's a lesson Chinese generals pray for - that modern defence breaks against a low budget, not just against hypersonic weapons.

„The PLA (People's Liberation Army) cannot neglect defensive capabilities," said Fu Qianshao, former colonel of the Chinese air forces. China is exponentially expanding its offensive arsenal over a decade - 1,000 fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighters (roughly comparable to the US F-35s), hypersonic vehicles, new missile platforms. But defence is lagging. That's an admission that in the Chinese context is equivalent to public self-criticism.

Taiwanese analyst Chieh Chung says that in a potential confrontation long-range missiles and drone swarms will be key. And here China already has a solution - a War on the Rocks study from 2025 estimates that „Chinese civilian manufacturers can produce a billion armed drones in a year." A billion. Without military mobilisation. Just by re-tasking existing factories.

But there's another side. Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies emphasises: „Tactical victories don't always lead to political outcomes." That's the lesson China most needs to learn. You have drones, you have missiles, you have fighters - but you don't have a generation of officers who've been under fire. That was already seen in the Korean War - experienced pilots on inferior aircraft beat average pilots on top-tier hardware.

For the Balkans, this is a lesson we've already paid for and survived. Armies are bought in a shop. Experience is paid for in blood. And the moment the numbers for drones and fifth-gen fighters arrive, the problem becomes: what for, and against whom. Will those billion drones be building hampers in Bulgaria, or will they protect China from someone else's „1979"?

Admiral Samuel Paparo from the US Indo-Pacific Command already draws the line: „Drones make war drastically more expensive for the attacking side." Translation: if Taiwan has effective defence with drone swarms, Chinese transport ships will pay a steep price. And here Taiwan is for now lagging behind - officials describe the current anti-drone system as „ineffective." And the opening for Chinese manoeuvre is happening right now.