Beijing has officially confirmed what Washington had already signalled: Donald Trump is coming to China on 14-15 May. It's the first visit by a US president to China since 2017 - the start of Trump's first term. Between then and now, the world has had a trade war, a pandemic and a new administration. Now - him again.

The programme details are standard for state visits: arrival Wednesday evening, official reception on Thursday, state dinner. Friday - official lunch, then departure. That's the format. The content is messier. On the agenda: aviation, agriculture, energy, an agreement on rare minerals. And less officially: Iran and Russia.

China is playing a double game in the Middle East conflict. Publicly, it calls for a „peaceful solution." Quietly, it sells satellite technology to Iran. A few days ago Washington imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms - Meentropy Technology (Hangzhou) Co. Ltd, The Earth Eye, and Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co. - for allegedly supplying Iran with satellite imagery that enabled attacks on US forces. Those sanctions landed days before Trump's visit. That's not a coincidence.

The previous direct meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping was in October at the APEC summit in South Korea. Back then the conversation was „the trade war." Now - the same trade war sits in a completely new context. Tariffs in both directions. Technology ban-lists. The Taiwan question in the background. And every visit of a US president to China comes with four messages - two for the Chinese, two for the home audience in the US. The Chinese look and see: Trump came to us, we're a power. The Americans look and see: Trump negotiates with the world, he's the leader.

For the Balkans this isn't a direct topic, but it matters indirectly. When the US and China negotiate, every one of us feels it in energy prices. When sanctions land, Chinese firms reposition - including those investing in the Balkans. And most importantly - when the two biggest powers in the world talk, the Balkans become an even smaller bystander in the game. Not the first time. But all the more reason to read every sentence out of Beijing and Washington carefully - because our future is being written there.