From 18 August, eurosuper BS-95 and BS-98 went up by 4.5 denars per litre, and eurodiesel by 6.5 denars. The Energy Regulatory Commission calculated an average increase of 4.85 percent.

The new prices: eurosuper BS-95 at 91.50 denars per litre, BS-98 at 93.50 denars, and eurodiesel at 98 denars per litre. Diesel, in other words, is knocking on the door of one hundred denars.

The question everyone asked was whether the state would intervene. Finance Minister Gordana Dimitrieska-Kocoska's answer was precise in what it did not say: „At the moment we have no such plans. But that does not mean it will not change. We are monitoring the situation, we will see how it develops and we will decide at government sessions.”

What „we are monitoring the situation” means

In the language government statements are written in, it means: not now, maybe later, and do not ask when. That is neither a promise nor a refusal - it is a postponement with an open deadline.

It is worth noting that one cut is already in force. The current calculation applies a reduced excise duty - by 2 denars per litre on petrol and 4 denars on diesel. So the state has already given up part of its revenue, and that is exactly why the next step, VAT, is harder for it.

Where the increase comes from

The increase comes from the international market. Oil prices are rising because of tensions in the Middle East, and Brent has passed 93 dollars a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz is back in every analysis, which historically has never meant prices calming down.

That is important to state plainly, because neither the regulator nor the government sets the price of Brent. All they set is the difference - how much of the world price is passed straight to the pump, and how much the budget absorbs through excise duty or VAT.

And that difference is a political decision, not a market one.

Next Monday

The regulator resets prices every seven days. If tensions in the Middle East do not ease, the next calculation will go up again - which means the decision the government put off this week will be back on the table immediately, just with higher numbers.

Until then, „we are monitoring the situation” is the entire policy.