Global food prices will rise by 11.8 percent this year, with growth continuing into 2027 with a further 4.8 percent. That is the estimate from Oxford Economics, and the heaviest blow is expected on wheat - its price in the third quarter would be around 36 percent higher than the same period last year, at 6.92 dollars a bushel.

The 11.8 percent figure is still below the 14.2 percent jump recorded in 2022. But the difference is that back then there was one shock - the sudden halt to exports from the Black Sea. Now there are two, and they feed each other.

The heat, not the war, is the bigger problem

This is the part fewest people expect. Oxford Economics assesses that extreme heat, not armed conflict, now poses the greater risk to global food inflation over time.

The record heatwave in June this year destroyed around 9 million tonnes of grain across Europe. France recorded its hottest average day ever, while Germany, Denmark and the Czech Republic set record highs. It was the continent's third major heatwave since the end of May, and it arrived while crops were at their most vulnerable stage.

The Balkans know this scene without reading it in an analysis. The question is not whether there will be more summers like this, but what agriculture does when they come back.

Input costs, the second layer

The second force is the rising cost of everything that goes into production. Diesel prices jumped 36 percent year-on-year in July, while fertilisers are forecast to get 22 percent more expensive this year. Wheat is a crop that demands intensive fertiliser - it carries the bulk of that load.

Ukraine and Russia together supply slightly under 30 percent of the world's wheat exports and more than 10 percent of its maize. The interruption of Black Sea exports has already pushed global wheat prices up by 5.8 percent, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization announced.

When it reaches the shelf

This is the part that concerns every household directly. Fresh food reacts fast - higher fruit and vegetable prices may show up as early as October and November. Processed food arrives with a lag and will be felt most strongly between February and May next year.

The most exposed are cereals, fruit, vegetables and dairy. Meat is relatively protected for now - but that protection is temporary too. Weak grain harvests raise animal-feed costs, which can push livestock farmers to cut their herds. And a reduced herd means more expensive meat a year later.

The important caveat in the projection

The 11.8 percent rise refers to global prices of agricultural commodities - it does not mean every product on the shelf automatically gets that much dearer. The final price also depends on processing, transport, energy and retail margin. Sometimes those soften the blow. Sometimes they amplify it.

The FAO food price index stood at 131.1 points in July - the highest level since January 2023. That index is watched as an early-warning system, because when it climbs, the effect shows up first in bread, oil and dairy before spreading across the entire household budget.

The UN warns that the period from October 2026 to March 2027 could be harder, with a forecast strong El Niño threatening to push an additional 2.6 million people into crisis-level hunger. Eurasia Group predicts wheat, maize and rice could get 10 to 18 percent more expensive by next summer.

Wheat, maize, diesel and fertiliser are commodities with a world price. Nobody on this side of the Balkans decides what they cost. The question that stays within domestic competence is a different one: is there anybody looking at these projections now, in August - or will they discover them in February, along with the rest of us, at the shelf.