Hungary Invites Croatia Into the Visegrad Group - Flattering, but With a Hidden Catch

Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, leader of the TISA party after the April elections, proposes expanding the Visegrad Group from four to eight members - and among those invited is Croatia. The idea sounds flattering for Zagreb, but analysts immediately notice „a small, uncomfortable situation".

At a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Magyar announced that at the Visegrad Four summit on 23 June he will propose an invitation to Austria, Germany, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania. „To build a strong Central Europe together," he said.

Political analyst Davor Đenero says Croatian membership would give it disproportionate influence in the European Council - but that is exactly where the complications begin.

The core of the problem is the rivalry between Brussels and Washington. Many of the proposed members have special relations with the US: Poland, Austria, the pro-Trump Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, the Trump-leaning Czech Andrej Babiš. Where would Croatia place itself in that divide - with Brussels or with Washington?

Further unknowns are Magyar's energy policy, Hungary's stance on the gas pipelines, and the relations of Janez Janša's new government in Slovenia toward the US and Israel. „The Visegrad Group offers significant advantages, but caution is the mother of wisdom," Đenero concludes.

For the Balkan reader, this is a familiar choice with no good answer - leaning toward one bloc means angering the other. Small states in Central and Southeast Europe forever play on that wire: close enough to the powerful to gain, cautious enough not to become someone's pawn. The question is only whether Croatia will know how to hold the balance - or be pushed into a choice it does not want.