A turnaround is brewing in Croatian politics that could bring down a man who felt untouchable for decades. According to a poll conducted across all ten electoral districts, if President Zoran Milanović ran in the next parliamentary elections with his own independent list, he would win as many as 26 seats in the future composition of the Sabor. Enough to decide whether the government stays or falls.

That puts Milanović in the position of a man who would single-handedly decide the fate of the HDZ - the party that, after three full terms, could end up in opposition. For Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, who has spent years building an image of the immovable, this would be the hardest blow of his career. Losing power after three terms is not survived easily, either within the party or the state.

One name in the background gives the story extra weight. Plenković had previously openly supported those who want to topple the government in Serbia - so now, with catastrophe knocking on his own door, the irony is hard to skip over. He who digs a pit for another, says the old proverb. Balkan politics rarely forgets that lesson.

The poll also shows that Milanović's entry would seriously hit the structure of the left. His list would draw part of the voters of the opposition and left-wing options, but also those who see in him Plenković's strongest opponent. For the first time, such a survey included the possibility of an independent Milanović list - and the result immediately upended all the political math in Croatia. Is this the beginning of the end of an era, or just another poll that promises much before the ballot box is opened? We'll only know then.