A month and a half ago, according to the data entered in the electronic register, around 4,900 first-graders were missing. Today, according to Education and Science Minister Vesna Janevska, the shortfall is around 1,500.

The difference between the two figures is 3,400 children. What happened to them?

Nothing. The schools did not enter them into the electronic register on time, even though they are obliged to.

"Fortunately, the number has dropped drastically"

The minister's phrasing reveals the problem with the entire approach. Nothing dropped - the data simply became more accurate. One and the same reality was reported twice, with a 3,400-child difference, and in that interval a public debate about demographic collapse was built on top of that number.

Janevska explains that experience from previous years shows some first-graders enrol towards the end of August and during September. "They enrol right up to the end of September, which is a bad habit, but we will try to fix that too," she said.

She also pointed out that around 800 fewer children were born in 2020 than the year before, which should be factored into the comparison.

"It is not good that the number is down, but it is not as large as it looked a month and a half ago," the minister said.

Emigration: "there is an impression"

The most interesting part of her appearance on 4TV's "Night Studio" was not the first-graders but emigration.

"There is an impression, although we will see the statistical data at the end of the year, that this wave has decreased somewhat," Janevska said, noting that this month there had been cases of pupils moving into the country.

An impression. Although we will see the statistical data at the end of the year.

An education minister offers a public assessment of the largest demographic process in the country, and admits herself she has no data underpinning that assessment. If even the first-grader figure - directly measurable and sitting in the ministry's own electronic register - was off by 3,400 children, an impression about emigration is hardly a firmer foundation.

Who is to blame for the demographics

Asked about demographic trends, the minister offered a list of causes: a changed way of life, personal ambitions, the wish for an easier and more comfortable life, changed roles within the family. She also mentioned avoiding responsibility.

"We cannot interfere in people's personal decisions, but the fact is our demographics are bad. If we had a higher number of births, we would not be facing empty classrooms and the need for optimisation in education," Janevska said.

The same minister told first-graders at the start of the school year to ask not only for knowledge but also for "a little brother or sister".

Economic conditions and employment, in her view, matter, but are not the only factors.

An empty classroom does not fill up on an appeal

The point is not that the minister is wrong about the demographics - the birth rate really is falling, and it really is emptying classrooms. The point is who gets named as the one holding the solution.

In the entire list of causes she gave, not a single institution appears. The causes are personal decisions, lifestyle, ambitions and dodging responsibility. In other words - parents.

The Education Ministry does not influence the birth rate. But it does influence whether the data in its own electronic register is accurate, and that data was off by 3,400 children. And it influences whether a family thinking about staying sees a school worth enrolling their child in.

The real emigration statistics arrive at the end of the year. Until then we have an impression.