Russia is burning - literally. Ukrainian drone strikes are torching Russian refineries, and the result shows up at petrol stations across the country: long queues, empty tanks and emergency measures. And yet nobody expects Vladimir Putin to blink.

The scale of the problem is concrete. In a single week Russia intercepted 660 drones over twelve regions - a number that tells you how far the war the Kremlin billed as a „swift operation" has spread. National petrol reserves have dropped to alarmingly low levels, queues are forming at pumps in Moscow and other cities, and Crimea declared a state of emergency and halted fuel sales. Even Putin admitted that „problems for drivers and companies still exist."

The war on the ground isn't going to plan either. Disrupted fuel supplies have hampered operations, and Ukraine reportedly liberated around 200 square kilometres of territory in February, clawing back part of what Russia took the year before. Behind the official statements about a „controlled situation" sits a reality in which the largest country on earth can't keep its own cars fuelled.

Still, analysts agree Putin won't back down. For decades he has built the image of a leader who never yields, which makes any retreat or compromise politically almost impossible at home. Russia has suffered over a million casualties and still claims to control four Ukrainian regions it doesn't actually hold in full. When a leader ties his power to never stepping back, everyone around him pays the price - and that's a lesson the Balkans has watched play out far too many times.