Russia entered Mali promising to stabilize the northern regions and defeat the separatists. Today, Russian African Corps forces have withdrawn from Kidal - the strategic town that was surrounded by thousands of FLA and JNIM fighters. After 24 hours of fighting and an agreement with the surrounding forces, Russian units left the town without interference. The withdrawal extended to Tessalit as well.

This means that northern and northeastern Mali - vast stretches of the Sahara - are effectively left without central government control from Bamako. The separatists of the Azawad Liberation Front now have free rein in the region where Russia was supposed to be the guarantor of order. This comes several years after Mali expelled French and UN peacekeeping forces and replaced the Russian Wagner fighters with the African Corps.

Is this a tactical withdrawal or the beginning of a larger shift? Moscow's official position is not known, but the pattern is visible: Russia abandoned its positions in Kidal after the situation became difficult to sustain. It is not the first time in Africa that a major power promised security and then left when the price became too high.

For Balkan countries that follow Russian military activity outside Europe with particular attention, this is another signal: power projection far from home has its limits. Mali is not Ukraine - in scale or strategy. But defeats do not care about geography.