According to long-range models, the first two days of September bring highs of 37 degrees. Until 10 September, daytime temperatures mostly move between 30 and 35. Autumn will wait.

The average maximum temperature for the first third of the month is around 34 degrees. A more noticeable cooling is expected around 11 September, when the daytime temperature could fall to 23 degrees. Then comes mild warming again, with 27 to 28 degrees in the middle of the month. Only the second half brings gradually more autumnal weather - daytime temperatures between 24 and 28, and towards the end of the month lows of 8 to 10 degrees.

Three degrees above average

Here is the number worth holding on to. Taking the forecasts for all thirty days together, the average maximum daily temperature would come to around 28.6 degrees. That is approximately three degrees above the climate average for September in Skopje.

Long-term climate data for Skopje show an average maximum of around 27 degrees in September and an average minimum of around 12. Average rainfall comes to about 46 millimetres, spread across roughly seven days with precipitation.

This year is also forecast to be drier than usual - rain is marked on only a small number of days. For a country that has been counting fires all summer, that is not a forecast that brings relief.

What a 30-day forecast is worth

It is worth being precise about what these numbers actually are. Meteorologists can predict weather conditions for the next few days reasonably well, but reliability drops the further out you go. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts issues sub-seasonal forecasts up to 46 days ahead, but those are meant primarily for tracking average conditions week by week, not for pinpointing a specific day.

So: "37 degrees on 1 September" is a signal of a hot start, not an appointment set in stone. The forecast for the second half of the month shows an expected trend, not a schedule.

What is closer to certain is the overall picture - an extended summer at the start, little rainfall, and genuinely autumnal mornings only in the final ten days or so. For schools starting work in the first week of September, that means a school year beginning at 34 degrees.