Donald Trump has managed to get hold of 13.5 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. Not from Iran - from Venezuela. A joint operation between Britain and the Venezuelan authorities extracted the material from an old research reactor near Caracas, and transported it "safely by land and sea from South to North America," the International Atomic Energy Agency announced.

The contrast is striking. Trump has spent months trying to get hold of around 408 kilograms of highly enriched uranium from Iran - so far without success. Iran is not budging, the talks are stuck at the point where Tehran isn't willing to hand over its last card, and Washington isn't willing to offer enough to buy it. Venezuela, by contrast, opened up.

The credit goes to a political U-turn that happened in January. Trump made a decision on Nicolás Maduro that opened the door to a renewal of diplomatic relations between the US and Venezuela. The result - American energy and mining companies once again have access to Venezuelan resources. And Venezuela, remember, sits on the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

Some of it is a swap. Venezuela gives up uranium, the US grants market access. Some of it is political theatre - showing Iran that even its neighbours and adversaries in opposite geopolitical blocs can find a road to Washington. The question Balkan analysts are asking: who's next? Whichever country prefers American diplomatic licences to Russian or Iranian ones, and pays in whatever currency looks most acceptable.

For the Balkans, the most important question isn't where the uranium is going - it's where we sit in this geometry. Macedonia and Kosovo have American bases. Serbia is keeping its balance. Bosnia and Albania are on different sides of the same continuum. We're all playing in the same market, by the same rules, just in different currencies. And if the Venezuelan case tells us anything, it tells us the biggest changes don't come from press conferences, but from a quiet operation and a signature on a deal.