The American naval blockade is pressing Iran to the edge. The US Defence Secretary called it iron - and the numbers confirm it: 34 seized vessels, American forces active in both the Indian Ocean and the Pacific. Iran's crude oil exports - the country's main source of hard currency - are under direct threat.

If the oil storage problem continues, Iran will have to cut production. Analysts estimate the country can hold out for another two to three months at the current pace. After that deadline - a critical situation. The oil literally has nowhere to go.

Citizens feel it at the markets. Prices of basic food items have risen three to four times. One million jobs have been lost directly because of the conflict, another two million are at risk. The new supreme leader called on citizens to show consideration for one another - a euphemism for the state not being able to feed them.

The regime still controls the situation, but the narrative is delicate: just three months before the conflict began, Iran was on the edge of popular revolt due to economic crisis. American and Israeli military operations gave the regime an excuse - the external enemy masks the internal problems. But how long can that hold when people have no bread?

Preliminary talks about negotiations are ongoing, American representatives are expected in Pakistan. But preliminary talks and iron blockade are hard to reconcile. One side or the other will blink - and history says that rarely happens early.