The price of „Brent" crude rose more than two percent this morning, after fresh US strikes on targets in southern Iran. The global benchmark barrel is now trading at 98.50 dollars. American „West Texas Intermediate" crude is selling at 91.95 dollars - lower than Friday's level, but Monday's movement has been muted by the US holiday.

That is the small story. The big story: the market is trading on expectations. Swiss bank UBS warns that global oil reserves dropped by 246 million barrels in March and April, and that cumulative production losses could exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May. In other words, the market is „seriously in deficit" - and that is before any new escalation.

What is happening politically? US Central Command says the strikes are „defensive" - targeting Iranian boats allegedly placing mines, and rocket launchers. Donald Trump posted on social media that talks with Iran „are going well", while at the same time sending a warning of additional military action if they fail.

This is the rhetoric of a dual signal. Trump uses a strongman style: we are ready to make peace, but we are also ready to make war. The choice is yours. It plays well on the campaign trail, but in international politics it sends confusing signals - and markets read them as elevated risk.

For Macedonia, this is not an abstract story. We are 100 percent dependent on imported petroleum products. If global prices jump 5-10 percent over the next two weeks, the Energy Regulatory Commission (RKE) will have to lift petrol and diesel. That means more expensive food (cargo transport costs more), pricier utilities, pricier bus rides. Simple arithmetic.

The question economists avoid: where exactly are the „strategic oil reserves" the state was supposed to build back in 2015? What contingency thinking exists for alternative suppliers? How long can Macedonia hold out without imports from critical markets if Hormuz closes for two weeks? If the answer is „we do not know" - that is an official failure, not a partisan attack.