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Gold at a Seven-Week High: A Weak US Labour Market Pushed the Metal Back Above 4,300 Dollars

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Gold at a Seven-Week High: A Weak US Labour Market Pushed the Metal Back Above 4,300 Dollars

When the world gets scared, it buys gold. That rule is older than every central bank combined, and this week it held again - the price jumped to its highest level in seven weeks, with a weekly gain above 5 percent.

The spot price of gold climbed to around 4,300 dollars an ounce, the highest since mid-June, before settling around 4,260 dollars. It was the fourth consecutive day of gains. US gold futures also rose, to more than 4,320 dollars an ounce.

The main driver was not some dramatic headline but a number: weaker-than-expected data from the US labour market. According to the ADP report, private sector hiring slowed considerably in July, with most of the new jobs created in healthcare.

The logic is simpler than it looks

A weak labour market means a lower chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. Low rates mean bonds pay less. And when bonds pay less, gold - which pays no interest at all - suddenly stops being a bad idea. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets put the odds of a September rate rise at about 55 percent, down from 63 percent a week earlier.

A weakening US dollar added further momentum. The dollar index stayed near a two-month low of 99.66 points after the United States and Japan intervened to strengthen the yen.

Markets also responded positively to reports that Iran and Oman are close to a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important maritime corridors for oil transport. Lower tensions there would ease inflationary pressure linked to energy prices.

The other precious metals are rising too - silver by 1.3 percent, platinum by 0.5 percent, while palladium slipped slightly.

Despite the rally, one figure is worth holding on to for perspective: gold is still more than 20 percent below its all-time high of 5,589 dollars an ounce, reached at the end of January. Which means this is not a new record - it is a recovery after a drop. The difference between the two matters to anyone reading headlines and thinking they have missed a train that already left.