Overnight between Sunday and Monday, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones at two US bases in Jordan - King Hussein and Al Azraq. They called the operation "Punishment for the Aggressor". The Revolutionary Guard claims it hit technical facilities and positions where American combat aircraft were deployed, and that the damage is extensive.

The Jordanian military tells an entirely different story: eight Iranian missiles entered their airspace and all were intercepted. An American source gave the same version. So: two statements about the same night, two opposing truths, and no independent confirmation of either. Which of the two do you believe?

What happened before that

The retaliation did not come out of nowhere. Hours earlier, US forces struck two Iranian launchers on the island of Larak, right at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz - the first known American strike on Iranian territory since the end of July. According to the American account, Revolutionary Guard members were preparing to fire projectiles carrying naval mines towards the strait. CENTCOM described the operation as "limited and precise".

Iran says its soldiers and civilians were killed in that strike. The response was announced immediately, and it arrived the same night.

The Strait of Hormuz is once again the centre of everything

Iranian state media reported that missiles had also been fired at American warships in the strait. The US military confirmed no vessel was hit, so for now that remains an Iranian media claim. But the threat alone is enough - one of the planet's most important energy flows passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and markets do not wait for confirmation before reacting.

Brent jumped around 2.8 percent to close to 90.60 dollars a barrel. American WTI went to around 85.5 dollars. That is the number that tells the truth faster than any statement: while the two sides argue about whose version is accurate, trading has already decided the risk is real.

Qatar, fog and nothing confirmed

In the same wave came reports of a possible attack on the American Al Udeid base in Qatar, one of the most important US bases in the region. Press TV reported a raised security threat level and a call for the population to stay indoors, away from windows. Regional sources reported explosions around the base. Confirmation - none.

The Revolutionary Guard's official statement lists only the two bases in Jordan as confirmed targets. Everything else is fog, and in that fog everyone builds their own version of events.

The Balkans know this scene

A war in which each side announces its own victory and there is independent confirmation of neither. The region reading this remembers that kind of reporting well - and knows how much time has to pass before anyone learns what actually happened. The difference is that this time it concerns a strait carrying the fuel of half the world.

Iran has promised an even heavier response to every further shot fired. The US is defending freedom of navigation. Nobody is saying where the top of this ladder is, and every new round costs more than the last - and it is not paid only in missiles.