Jared Kushner, son-in-law and envoy of the US president, travels to Israel next week to try to rescue the American plan for Gaza. Nickolay Mladenov, the senior representative of Trump's peace committee, is going with him. The trip also takes in Egypt, the country carrying the hardest job of mediator.

The reason for the journey is simple: the plan was rejected out loud. Benjamin Netanyahu publicly dismissed the American 15-point document on 9 August, almost two weeks after Mladenov presented it to them. The plan calls for the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Hamas accepted it. Israel replied that withdrawal is possible only after "genuine" disarmament - a phrase anyone who has ever waited for a condition to be met will recognise.

When allies agree on the destination but not the road

A source from the peace committee says Kushner and Mladenov are hoping for "constructive talks". The same source names the point of agreement: both Washington and Tel Aviv want a demilitarised Hamas. That is the only place the two sides meet - and that is precisely the problem. When two allies agree only on the end point, the negotiations reduce to who gives ground first on the way there.

The ceasefire declared in October 2025 was the first turning point in the conflict. Attacks have thinned out since then, but they have not stopped. Ten months on, this is still not the peace that was announced in October.

The election as a third player at the table

Hanging over all of this is something that rarely makes it into the press releases. Netanyahu faces parliamentary elections in October with an uncertain outcome. He has promised there will be no withdrawal and openly doubts Hamas will disarm at all, demanding verifiable destruction of the weapons. Every step he takes towards the American plan is now also a step in a domestic campaign.

So Kushner is not going to negotiate Gaza in the abstract. He is going to find out how much room a prime minister has in an election year - an entirely different question from what is written in those fifteen points. The Balkans have plenty of experience with plans that collapse not because of their content, but because of somebody's electoral calendar.