If the global oil story felt far away, here's the local version: the Energy Regulatory Commission recalculates fuel prices today - and by every sign, diesel and petrol are set to rise again. Last week diesel already jumped 5.5 denars per litre, and petrol 1.5 denars.

Right now the top retail prices are 87 denars a litre for EUROSUPER BS-95, 89 for BS-98, 88 for diesel and 86 for extra-light household heating oil. Whether the upward trend continues this week too will be shown by the ERC's decision - which, in its methodology, factors in exchange prices, the dollar rate, transport costs, margins, and excise duties.

Prime Minister Mickoski admitted upfront that there will be a hike, but that the exact calculation is the regulator's to make. He named the causes plainly: the dramatic climb of oil on world exchanges and a stronger dollar. As a counterweight, he announced the government will again intervene by cutting excise duties on both diesel and unleaded fuels - without saying when.

And here comes the number that explains the whole worry. According to estimates cited in the government's rationale, oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been cut by a full 90 percent - so on Wednesday, under an expedited procedure, parliament will vote to extend the oil state of crisis all the way to 20 October. The state of crisis, declared in March, means we've now lived half a year under a „supply-risk" regime.

From SDSM comes the reaction that citizens expect measures, not appeals - that the new petrol hike will spill over onto already-pricier food. The debate over who protects the standard of living, and how much, will run on. The driver, meanwhile, knows only one thing: the bill at the pump today will most likely be a few denars heavier than last Monday. And the excise cut, whenever it comes, first has to catch up with that increase.