The House of Representatives passed the bill with 262 votes in favour and 159 against. The Senate had already backed it. All that remains is Donald Trump's signature, and the White House has confirmed he intends to give it.

What does the American president get with that signature? The authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on countries that buy Russian energy. The same law also extends sanctions against Iran to 2031.

The figure that explains the whole operation comes from Senator Jeanne Shaheen: China is the largest importer of Russian fossil fuels and accounts for around 51 percent of Moscow's revenue from those sales. So this is not a law about Russia. This is a law about the people financing it.

Winter as the deadline

Republican Michael McCaul, who tabled it, insisted the bill pass before winter - to put pressure on Putin before Russia strikes civilian infrastructure again, the power grids and the water systems. "This will hit them where it hurts most," he said, adding that it will also push China to lean on Moscow, since it too will bear the consequences of the tariffs.

The logic is clear. The question is whether it works.

Even the supporters have doubts

Gregory Meeks, the ranking Democrat on the Foreign Affairs Committee, does not believe the law will achieve its aim. His objection is sharp: Trump gets broad new powers, and at the same time he can bypass the very sanctions this law is meant to impose. "He could have acted earlier, but he did not do it for 19 months," Meeks said.

Thomas Wright of Brookings warns of the same thing from another angle - in his second term Trump has shown great enthusiasm for tariffs as an instrument of pressure, so expanded powers carry a risk of overuse. Many are celebrating this as a Ukrainian victory, he says, but it remains an open question whether the symbolic success is worth the new tariff risks.

In other words: the law was written for Putin, and the key was handed to a man who has already shown what he does with keys like that.

The reaction from the Kremlin

Dmitry Peskov did not wait long. "We are following the development of this document. This constitutes a hostile act, and the introduction of additional American sanctions will certainly complicate efforts to find a peaceful solution for Ukraine," the Kremlin spokesman said.

Meanwhile Senator Richard Blumenthal sent a message to the Ukrainian address: "You are not alone," and then addressed Putin directly - your economy is buckling, we will dismantle your war machine.

What this means for us

In the background runs a quiet diplomacy that rarely reaches the headlines. Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff were in Moscow and Kyiv this month. CIA Director John Ratcliffe spent hours in talks with Russian counterparts at the end of August. Zelensky came to Capitol Hill in July and met dozens of senators before the vote.

So while hundred-percent tariffs are being voted on in public, talking is going on in private. That is not a contradiction - it is how power works. The Balkans know this scene by heart: it is called pressure at the table, while the real conversation happens in the next room.

The war is entering its fifth year. Moscow strikes civilian targets, Ukraine hits back at Russian refineries, and in Washington they are counting whether they will make it before winter. Which of these three clocks stops first - that is the only question that really matters.