The Pentagon and Trump administration significantly underestimated Iran's willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli military strikes. Several sources familiar with the situation indicate this represents the "worst-case scenario" that US authorities are now dealing with.

Key decision-makers insufficiently considered the potential economic consequences. Although representatives from the Departments of Energy and Treasury participated in some planning meetings, their analyses were marginalized. Trump's tendency to consult with a narrow circle of advisers resulted in neglect of inter-agency discussions about economic risks.

Iran's actual response surprised diplomatic partners and former American officials. "Planning to prevent exactly this scenario - regardless of how unlikely it seemed - is a fundamental principle of US national security policy for decades," stated a former official, adding: "I'm stunned."

Shipping company executives repeatedly requested military escorts for oil tankers through the strait, but all requests were denied. American military representatives consistently stated they have no orders to escort and that the risks are extremely high.

Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that escorts will begin "when militarily feasible," while officials acknowledged in classified meetings with legislators that they had not planned for the strait closure as Iran's response. The administration believed that closure would hurt Iran more than America - an assessment based on previous Iranian hollow threats in the past.