The battle for Kostiantynivka has begun, and not as a local attack - but as systematic pressure on one of the key cities in Ukraine's „belt of fortresses" in the Donetsk region. Russian forces are about one kilometre from the southern outskirts of the city, and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi confirms that 83 assault attempts have been recorded since Monday alone. Not one, not ten, not twenty - 83 separate attempts at infiltration.

Kostiantynivka isn't just a town. It's part of a carefully built Ukrainian defensive system that includes Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Pokrovsk. The whole four-year front depends on holding these fortresses. When Kostiantynivka falls - and this matters - it isn't just one town that goes. It's the strategic perimeter that shields Ukrainian logistics lines to the rest of the Donbas.

The Russian Ministry of Defence is already claiming Novodmitrivka has been taken - a small place north of Kostiantynivka. General Valery Gerasimov reports advances both north and south of the town. The Ukrainian general staff replies with „we are firmly repelling all infiltration attempts" - a phrase that in Ukraine's military lexicon already means the town is on the brink.

Russian tactics in recent months have shifted. Small infantry groups, not massive armoured assaults. That means fewer losses for Moscow, more hidden gains. And it's the new pattern in this war. No big push. Hundreds of small pushes, each a handful of soldiers, each a few metres. The „water-hammer" method - slow but targeted.

For the Balkans this is the message everyone has internalised but no one wants to say out loud. The war isn't going well for Ukraine. Not catastrophically, not apocalyptically - but not well. Every month a new town. Every season a new sector. And every Friday the same lines about „repelled attacks". When Brussels talks about aid, we are listening to the same phrases as in 2022. Only in 2022 Ukraine had 25% more territory.

We in Macedonia are unambiguously on Ukraine's side, but without illusions. Time is on the Russian side. Syrskyi may not say so openly - his job is to encourage, not to panic. But a real assessment depends on numbers, not words. And the numbers for Kostiantynivka say one kilometre. A question of weeks, not months.