On day 65 of the Middle East conflict, an Iranian supertanker pulled off a play Washington had treated as impossible. 1.9 million barrels of crude worth around 220 million dollars - delivered to the Asia-Pacific region via Indonesia's Lombok Strait, after the American naval blockade had been announced. A scenario the Pentagon wanted to be a rarity. It is looking more and more like the regular pattern.

The US claims that around 41 Iran-linked ships were forced to change course after the blockade was declared on 13 April. Iran claims 52 ships made it through. The two numbers don't match, and both are most likely true in their own way - the Americans count what they have registered, the Iranians what got through. The reality is somewhere in between: the blockade works partly, but not enough to stop the flow.

In response, Israel is ramping up its arsenal. The defence ministry has approved the purchase of new F-35I and F-15IA fighter squadrons from American producers. We're talking about contracts worth billions of dollars, justified by „the new regional threats". At the same time, the US has approved arms sales worth 8.6 billion dollars to Middle Eastern allies - Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Israel. War or no war, the arms companies aren't about to skip a season.

On the northern front, Hezbollah fired several rockets from southern Lebanon at the border village of Avivim. The IDF confirmed at least one was intercepted. The same morning, Israel again issued evacuation orders to local residents in southern Lebanon. Technically - a ceasefire. Operationally - war with a ceasefire status. The locals know both states well by now and neither surprises them anymore.

The numbers from Lebanon remain grim. 2,659 killed and 8,183 wounded by Israeli strikes in the period from 2 March to 2 May, according to the Lebanese health ministry. That is twice as many deaths as in some earlier months, and the Lebanese health service tends to give the lower estimates. The real figures could be higher. And every digit in 2,659 is one family that may not even know what happened.

Iran has in the meantime sent a 14-point peace proposal to the US, mediated through Pakistan. The points include nuclear issues, easing of sanctions, and a permanent end to the war. Trump has already said the proposal isn't enough. Lavrov from Moscow offered Russian help with the negotiations. It's worth noting who isn't in the game - Brussels. The European Commission, when it comes to the Middle East, has for months now been content to play the spectator, not the player. And that is a paradigm the Balkans understand all too well.