Diesel has crossed the 100-denar line again. From midnight on 8 September, a litre of EURODIESEL (D-E V) costs 101 denars - six denars more than it did yesterday. The decision was taken by the Regulatory Commission for Energy, Water Services and Municipal Waste Management Services, and the average rise across oil derivatives is 4.89 per cent.

Petrol went up more moderately: EUROSUPER BS-95 by 3 denars, to 97 denars a litre, and EUROSUPER BS-98 also by 3 denars, to 99 denars.

The biggest rise is not the one being discussed

Extra-light household heating oil (EL-1) is going up by 8 denars a litre, with a new price of 105 denars. In absolute terms that is the largest increase in the entire decision, and it applies to the fuel that a portion of households use to get through the winter.

Heavy fuel oil M-1 NS is rising by 1.591 denars per kilogram, with a new retail price of 46.001 denars per kilogram.

The regulator explains that the increase is down to higher reference prices on world exchanges and the denar exchange rate. That is an accurate and complete reason - a formula is a formula, and the commission applies it rather than inventing it.

The timing

The prices took effect on 8 September, Independence Day. That is pure calendar coincidence, but it is still a fact worth recording: in the same week, statistics showed that transport had become 0.8 per cent cheaper month on month, and now diesel has jumped six denars.

Which means next month's statistics will look different, and that the part of August's price calm that came from cheaper transport no longer holds.

Diesel is the fuel of haulage, agriculture and construction - the three sectors that pass their own costs on fastest. That is not a prediction, it is a mechanism. The only question is how long it takes to reach the shelf.