From midnight, diesel went up by 4.50 denars to 98.50 denars a litre. Eurosuper BS-95 is at 93 denars, BS-98 at 95. That very same day, on world markets, Brent crude fell to 85.7 dollars a barrel - almost three percent below the previous day. American WTI dropped to 80 dollars.

So: prices fall abroad, prices rise here. The Energy Regulatory Commission has an explanation, and it is accurate - new prices are calculated on the previous week's average, and the previous week Brent was at 100 dollars.

The promise for next week

Asked about it in Ilinden, Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski promised he expects a „bigger reduction” in prices next week. A decision on excise duties and VAT will be taken at a government session on 4 August, after the second half of July closes.

„You know that we analyse excise duties every two weeks. We are now closing the second half of the month, so on Monday we will calculate the average for the second half and act on fuel prices based on those parameters,” Mickoski said.

Asked whether he would also intervene on VAT, the answer was another delay: „We already intervened once with excise duties, now we are waiting for 31 July to close, the second half of the month, that is what the law says, and only then will we introduce additional measures.”

The mechanism that always lags in one direction

The two-week averaging window is written into law and is identical in both directions. The consumer, though, experiences it asymmetrically: when the market rises, the increase arrives two weeks late and is already at the pump. When the market falls, the cut is also two weeks late - except that by then he has been filling up at the higher price.

In March, fuels were moved from the standard 18 percent VAT rate to the preferential 10 percent. That measure has already been spent. The next intervention, if it comes, will reduce budget revenue and will not remove exposure to the market - it will only cushion it once.

Mickoski claims Macedonia has by far the lowest diesel and unleaded petrol prices in the region and in Europe. According to the comparisons, Greece and Albania have the most expensive petrol, while Albania and Serbia have the most expensive diesel. The lowest price in the region and the lowest price relative to a wallet are not the same thing - it depends on how much you bring to the calculation.