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Gold - the eternal “safe haven” of anyone fleeing uncertainty - showed these past days that it, too, is not untouchable. After a run of sharp drops, the price is steadying around 4,000 dollars an ounce, having fallen about two percent in the previous session. The metal that has meant safety for centuries reminded us in a flash that it too has bad days.
On the spot market, gold traded at around 4,037 dollars an ounce, with a small daily decline. The cause of the pressure is familiar: a stronger dollar, higher yields on US bonds and expectations of another rate rise. And here is the paradox - although gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal, because the metal carries no interest yield the way bonds or savings do.
An additional blow came from the jump in oil above 100 dollars a barrel, which sharpened the fear of new inflation and the possibility that central banks will raise rates once more. Markets estimate the probability of a US rate rise in September at around 81 percent.
Over the recent period the price of gold has moved in a wide range - between roughly 3,980 and 4,170 dollars an ounce. The zone around 4,000 dollars is now an important psychological line; if it holds, the metal stays stable, if it breaks downward, fresh turbulence follows.
The lesson for the ordinary person thinking of keeping their savings in gold is sober: not even the oldest safe haven is immune to the waves. When all markets move in the same direction, even gold swims with the current - and further movement will depend on oil, the dollar and central bank decisions, not on the belief that gold only ever rises.
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