Oil prices are living under the direct dictate of tensions between the US and Iran. Brent crude briefly hit $126 a barrel, then dropped to $113 after a 5.8 percent jump. It's the kind of move that, in a single day, rewrites every European energy minister's plan - and forces Balkan ruling structures to ask, with a cool head, what's coming at the pumps tomorrow.

The main drivers of these moves have been laid out in earlier analyses - Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the UAE, ships in the Strait of Hormuz that can't pass without military escort, an American counter-operation with 15,000 troops. Instead of being in a period of de-escalation, the world is moving toward escalation.

For the Balkans, the figures translate concretely. Oil above $110 a barrel, if it persists for more than two months, already translates into petrol prices of 1.40-1.50 euros per litre. If a jump to $130 holds - we can expect 1.60-1.70 euros. For a family with one car burning around 1,000 litres a year, that's an additional 200-300 euros annually. A sum that, in many households, gets measured against „this or the summer holiday".

The second tremor is in electricity prices. Macedonia imports part of its electricity, and part is generated by thermal plants that depend on imported oil derivatives. A jump in oil prices means a jump in electricity prices - with a delay of 1-3 months. The same pattern applies in Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia.

The question our politicians are conspicuously skipping out loud - are there strategic reserves of oil derivatives the state can activate to soften the spikes? And if they exist, when will they be activated? History says - late, sometimes when it's already too late. Because „activating reserves" politically means admitting a crisis exists - and a crisis always gets hidden as long as humanly possible.