From 1 July 2026, the European Union is imposing a fixed 3-euro fee on all small parcels valued under 150 euros arriving via e-commerce from outside the EU. First in the firing line - Temu and Shein, the Chinese platforms that have taken over Europe's low-price consumer market over the past two years.

The number that justifies the policy - 5.8 billion small parcels entered the EU over the past year, a 26 percent jump. That's a volume that literally drowns every customs system in the Union, while at the same time creating unfair competition for European sellers who pay full duty and VAT. The logic - level the playing field.

For the Balkans, which aren't in the EU, the question is framed differently. First - does this mean our customs systems will follow Europe's lead? Until then, with Temu and Shein prices rising in the EU, we can expect traffic to be rerouted toward the Balkans. The Chinese platforms will test the pattern - sell in countries with looser rules, and from there re-route the parcels to the EU. We've seen those „spike-on-parcel" scenarios in Singapore, Hong Kong and Dubai.

The second thing - the buyer will pay the difference. 3 euros on a parcel worth 10-20 euros is a 15-30 percent price increase. For Temu and Shein, which live on low-margin products sold at high volume, it's a blow. But the final burden always lands on the consumer. The Balkan shopper who used to order 50 euros' worth a month - will pay around 60. The Spaniard - the same.

The question that isn't politically correct - who exactly profits from this fee? In theory, small European sellers. In practice, the revenue will probably go into the common EU budget, which those same consumers will pay through other instruments. A bureaucratic loop with lots of sleeves, little result. And the only big winners may turn out to be - the big European e-commerce players who don't pay the fee because they operate inside the EU. Amazon, Zalando, Otto - all quietly cheering.