September is starting as a continuation of August. Forecasts put temperatures in Skopje at around 34-37 degrees in the first days of the month, with 1 and 2 September possibly reaching 37.

The Hydrometeorological Service forecasts sunny and warm weather with light to moderate cloud and light to moderate wind. On Tuesday, 1 September, the maximum temperature in Skopje will reach around 35-36 degrees, with morning readings around 19-22. Wednesday is expected around 33-36, and on Thursday temperatures would drop to around 32-33.

The first real relief comes on Friday, 4 September - morning temperatures in Skopje would sit around 13-18 degrees, daytime around 31-33. Over the weekend, another rise: around 32-35 on Saturday and back up to 36 on Sunday.

Meteorologists are not promising a cool-down

Serbian meteorologist Nedeljko Todorovikj says summer will hold for at least the next two weeks, with above-average temperatures and a shortage of rainfall.

"So: above-average warmth, dry on most days, with relatively high temperatures, 30 and above. It may drop a degree or two below 30 on some days, and the average maximum temperature for the end of August and the very start of September is 26 degrees," he said.

There is the number that says everything: the average for this period is 26 degrees. We are looking at 36. That is ten degrees above what should climatologically be normal for the end of August.

Todorovikj was also honest about what he does not know: "I would rather not make things up. I have no arguments for it. Judging by the inertia of the system that has dominated our region for almost two months, these are small transitions, weakly defined cold fronts carrying very little cloud and very little rain, and they are local in character."

Not a sentence you often hear from a man whose job is forecasting.

Autumn is coming - but in instalments

According to long-range models, the change should become more obvious in the second half of the month. Daytime temperatures would gradually fall, while morning and night readings would keep dropping. Towards the end of September, minimum temperatures in Skopje could on some days fall to around 8-10 degrees.

Climate averages for Skopje show typical daily highs through September descending from roughly 29 degrees at the start to around 23 at the end. So the month itself is a descent - it is just that this year it begins from a much higher point.

The school year starts on Tuesday, on a day when the mercury climbs towards 36. That is the context in which classroom doors will open - many of them without air conditioning, in buildings designed for a different climate than this one.

And while Pelister is still burning, two weeks without rain is not merely an unpleasant forecast. It is dry ground and wind, in a country that has already shown this summer how quickly things travel from a spark to a national park.