Macedonia today signed a memorandum in Thessaloniki on joining the Vertical Gas Corridor. It was signed by energy minister Sanja Božinovska, at the 10th Southeast Europe Energy Forum.

Until now the corridor was conceived as a route from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, all the way to Moldova and Ukraine. From now on we are in it too, along with Serbia.

Why this matters more than it sounds

The answer is in one figure Božinovska said out loud, and it is worth repeating.

Until now Macedonia had one single gas connection - with Bulgaria. And more than around 85 percent of that capacity is leased long-term by Gazprom.

In other words: the country had one door for gas, and most of it was already reserved by a Russian supplier. That is not supply, that is dependence with a signature on it.

The second door

The interconnector with Greece is under construction, and commercial operation is planned to begin before the end of 2027. Initial capacity is around 1.5 billion cubic metres a year, with room to increase.

The other half of the undertaking is the link with Serbia. The design and construction contract was signed with the company "Rapid Build", which is already working on the Greek-Macedonian section too. That pipeline is planned for completion by the end of 2028, roughly a year after the Greek link goes live. Capacity is estimated at three to six billion cubic metres a year.

The central point of the new system is the floating terminal at Alexandroupolis, through which liquefied natural gas - largely of American origin - and Azerbaijani gas from the TAP system will be routed northwards.

Macedonia has already reserved four slots at that terminal. "Srbijagas" has secured capacity of 300 million cubic metres a year for the next decade.

From end point to transit

The difference between being the end point of a pipeline and being part of a corridor is the difference between a buyer and a participant.

An end point pays the price it is given. A transit country has transit revenue, a second supply alternative, and an argument in negotiations it did not have before.

That is why Božinovska talks about an "energy crossroads" - and in this case the phrase is backed by a pipe already being welded.

What is still unresolved

A memorandum is a memorandum. The pipes are being built, but the dates are 2027 and 2028, and the capacities are estimates.

Second, swapping one supplier for another is not diversification in itself. If instead of Russian gas we buy American LNG through a Greek terminal, that is a better position - but still a position in which somebody else sets the price.

The real test will be what price a Macedonian household and a Macedonian factory pay in the winter of 2028, compared with today. Until then this is good news on paper with real foundations - which around here is already above average.