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Gold Fell 0.6 Percent - but It Is 30 Percent Above Last Year: a Fall From What Level?

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Gold Fell 0.6 Percent - but It Is 30 Percent Above Last Year: a Fall From What Level?

The spot price of gold fell by around 0.6 percent, to roughly 4,324 dollars an ounce. US futures dropped by almost a full percent, to about 4,379 dollars. Just one day earlier the metal had reached around 4,449 dollars - its highest level since the start of June.

And this is the point where the headline "gold is falling" stops meaning what it appears to mean.

A fall from what, seen from where

Over the past month the price is up more than 6 percent. Compared with the same period last year - growth of nearly 30 percent.

So a one-day dip of half a percent after several days of strong growth is not a trend reversal. It is profit-taking: some investors sold to lock in their gains, which put extra pressure on the price. Analysts read the move mainly as a correction.

Why gold climbed in the first place

The push came from US economic data. Weaker inflation figures dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September. When monetary policy looks less restrictive, gold - which pays no interest - becomes more attractive relative to assets that do.

That is the whole mechanism, and it is simpler than the headlines about a "gold rush" suggest.

What the analysts are watching for

A break above 4,400 dollars an ounce could reignite the rally. Some market projections run as high as 5,000 dollars by the end of the year. The other precious metals are moving in mixed directions - silver fell 0.9 percent, platinum 0.4, while palladium is slightly up.

Projections remain what they are - projections. Nobody who claims to know where gold will be in four months knows where gold will be in four months.

What is worth holding on to is the gap between the daily number and the annual one: 0.6 percent down today, nearly 30 percent up on last year. Next time you read a headline about a fall, it is worth asking - a fall from what level?