The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has officially said what the industry has been calculating for weeks: air fares in Europe are inevitably going up. The cause - rising jet fuel prices because of the tensions with Iran and the closed Strait of Hormuz.

„Simply put, there's no way for the carriers to absorb the additional costs," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, in an interview with the BBC. That's the moment an industry chief says the brutal truth without the usual gloss - not „maybe", not „in the future", but „no way".

The reality is that some European carriers are temporarily cutting prices because of weak demand - summer won't be like 2024 or 2025. But that's a short-term tactic. What happens after summer? Prices will jump, that's the consensus across every analysis.

For British airlines there's another dilemma - whether there will be enough jet fuel for the summer. ACI Europe (the international council of airports for Europe) warned last month that EU airports would face „systemic shortages" of fuel if Hormuz didn't reopen within three weeks. That window has already passed.

Airlines worldwide have so far cancelled around 13,000 flights just this month - that's 2 million unused seats. Cirium, the leading aviation analytics company, confirms the industry is adjusting to the new conditions.

For the Balkans - and for Macedonia - that means several things. Fares for flights to Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Italy will rise by 20-30% above current levels. On top of that, diaspora travellers who regularly fly to Skopje and Ohrid in the summer will be recalculating their budgets. Hotels that rely on the diaspora - that's where the pain will be felt first.

And the alternative? The EU has said there's technically no obstacle to importing jet fuel from the US. That's a scenario that would work - but with major costs, which will be passed on to ticket prices. Without a quick resolution in Hormuz, this summer air travel becomes a luxury reserved for those who plan ahead and stay flexible on dates.

For anyone holding out for „cheap aviation" - no. We're entering a period where the plane ticket will be what it was in the 90s: expensive, rare, chosen carefully. That isn't a catastrophe. It's a change. And we need to adapt.