One statement from Donald Trump. One sentence: "China has agreed that it wants to buy oil from the US." And Brent prices jumped immediately by more than one percent - to about 106-107 dollars a barrel. WTI (the US benchmark) - to over 102 dollars. The global market reacts to every whisper from Washington in real time, because the geopolitical context has never been this unstable.

The rise is not driven solely by the announcement of new sales of US oil to Chinese markets. It also comes from the still active risk in the Strait of Hormuz - the strategic maritime passage through which a large share of global oil and natural gas transport passes. The Iranian side claims that around 30 ships passed normally through the Strait yesterday, but traders do not believe in "normality" - this month the Strait saw vessel seizures and attacks.

For this week, Brent is up around six percent. WTI - over seven. That is a big move for the oil market within five days.

For Macedonia, this is not a statistic from a distant market. Pump prices for fuel are set by an official reference to international prices, and current movements will inevitably show up in the coming weeks. RKE publishes new references every fifteen days. When the global price of oil rises by 10-15 dollars a barrel over two months, that ultimately means a few denars more in the price of petrol and diesel.

What if Trump backs out of the deal in ten days? What if Iran blocks navigation through the Strait for a day? Prices will move in the same direction again, at the same speed. This market behaves more like a reaction apparatus to political signals than a fundamental balance of supply and demand. And the long-term way out - less dependence on fossil fuels, faster electrification of transport - is exactly what Macedonia has been postponing for decades. On top of that, postponed with "we have more important problems" and "energy policy is complex." Complex for whom? For those who will pay the bill at the end.