Trump Declares an "Energy Ceasefire", and Hours Later Russian Strikes Hit Power Plants in Kyiv and Kharkiv

On Sunday, Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social network that an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine was taking effect immediately. "Both sides have agreed. Don't break it! Thank you for your attention," the US president wrote. Several hours after the post, the Kremlin still hadn't confirmed anything. Volodymyr Zelensky said he'd learned about the deal from the post.

The ground answered faster than diplomacy. A Russian missile hit a shop in a suburb of Kharkiv - three dead, 20 injured, among them an eight-year-old girl. Three more were killed in a strike on Ivano-Frankivsk, in the west of the country. A drone hit a power plant in Kyiv, leaving entire neighbourhoods without electricity, followed by strikes on energy facilities in the Kharkiv region. "And all of this happened after the President of the United States made a statement about an energy ceasefire," Zelensky said. The state grid operator Ukrenergo announced power restrictions in several regions.

According to Zelensky, in the past week alone Russia carried out more than 200 strikes on power generation and transmission facilities and another 17 on gas and oil installations. More than 150 killed, more than 700 injured. Kyiv nonetheless said it was ready to stop attacking Russia's energy sector if Moscow stopped its strikes too, and that the armed forces "have received all the appropriate orders".

The pressure only goes one way

Alongside the announcement, Washington is threatening Kyiv. According to European officials, the US is warning that it will cut off PURL, the mechanism through which Ukraine buys American weapons, as well as intelligence sharing, if Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries don't stop. "They're calling Kyiv... they're calling literally everyone in Europe," said one European official who received a call directly from the US Department of Defense.

The timeline says more than the statements. On Friday Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin - a conversation the Kremlin described as "friendly". Immediately afterwards a deal on importing Russian diesel into the US was announced. The US president appears to have come out of that call convinced that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are the main culprit behind high fuel prices in America. The Congressional elections are a few weeks away, and the cost of living is American voters' biggest concern.

There's resistance even within his own party. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said easing sanctions on Russian diesel may break the law. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told Zelensky the diesel deal is "directly contrary" to efforts for peace in Europe and that Canada will keep its sanctions, perhaps even tighten them. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham backed the call for a ceasefire but pointed out that it was Russia that stepped up its strikes on Ukraine's energy grid this weekend. Emmanuel Macron said France supports a genuine energy ceasefire "without reservation" - and that Moscow is rejecting it for now.

Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik, asked how realistic it is for such a deal to come to life after the diesel agreement, kept it short: "On that question I can't be an optimist."

In the nineties the Balkans saw plenty of ceasefires signed on paper and broken before the ink was dry. But this one isn't even signed. A ceasefire announced by a party that isn't in the war, without a single word from Moscow - is that a ceasefire, or just a social media post before an election?