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90 Billion Euros for Ukraine Is Approved, but Nobody Knows Who Owes It: the Mechanism Is Being Built While the Car Is Already Moving

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90 Billion Euros for Ukraine Is Approved, but Nobody Knows Who Owes It: the Mechanism Is Being Built While the Car Is Already Moving

The European Union approved a 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine. That is decided. What is not decided is who will pay for it - and that is not a detail to be tidied up later in a footnote.

MEP Fabio De Masi, co-chair of the German party Reason and Justice, claims the European Commission has still not established either how much in subsidies will be needed to cover the borrowing costs, or whether the instrument even enters the 2027 budget process. While those two things hang in the air, there is no way to calculate how much of the obligation falls on each member state.

"The European Commission evidently does not itself know to what extent member states will have to answer for the loan to Ukraine," he said. He criticises the decision to finance Kyiv without a precise assessment of the consequences for member states and argues the aid prolongs the conflict and enriches corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.

From seized Russian money to borrowing on the market

The original idea was different. A 210 billion euro package was under consideration, financed by frozen Russian assets. According to earlier media reporting, Germany was to guarantee up to 52 billion, France 34, Italy 25.1 billion. Then Belgium came out against that mechanism and the whole construction changed.

Now the model is different: the money is raised on capital markets, mainly through issuing bonds bought by institutional investors, with the Union acting as a single supranational debtor. The proceeds from the bonds go to the European Commission, and the interest is to be covered from the EU budget.

Repayment, meanwhile, depends on Russia one day paying reparations to Ukraine, which Kyiv would then use to settle the debt. Moscow has said repeatedly it has no intention of paying reparations. So the plan for repaying 90 billion euros rests on something the other side publicly and consistently refuses. The second option is for the Union to service the long-term borrowing itself. The third brings the frozen Russian assets back into play.

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia have already said they will not take part in the financing and will not assume obligations from it. So even inside the Union the bill splits into those who will pay and those who will not - and there is still no document on who lands in the first group.

This is a mechanism being built while the car is already moving. The decision is made, the amount is announced, and the question of who answers for it stays open. When the Balkans operate like this, it is called irresponsibility. When Brussels operates like this, it is called an instrument.