When an ammunition factory explodes while the fire crew is already on site, two theories usually follow. One is that somebody came from outside. The other is that something inside had been wrong for a long time. The Italian government chose the second - and it did so very fast.

The explosion on 13 August hit the KNDS Ammo Italia plant in Colleferro, south-east of Rome. Firefighters were already there because of a fire when the facility suddenly detonated. There were no injuries. Footage shows an enormous column of smoke above the factory, and residents nearby reported a powerful blast - one local woman said her first thought was that it was an earthquake.

The Russia question opened by itself

A military plant in wartime. It did not take much for sabotage speculation to start. The Italian daily La Repubblica reported that prosecutors are also examining possible links to similar incidents at ammunition plants in Bulgaria. Investigators declined to comment on that.

Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, meanwhile, poured the whole story out in a single sentence.

„There are no indications whatsoever that would give anyone reason to believe this is anything other than an internal problem”, Crosetto told the Italian agency Adnkronos.

Meaning: it is our own doing, nobody attacked us, let us move on. The problem is that the government in Rome has not addressed claims that this very plant produces ammunition destined for Ukraine. And that is the part that keeps the whole story open.

The opposition wants something said in parliament

Carlo Calenda, leader of the opposition Azione party, demanded that the government report to parliament and explain what happened as quickly as possible.

„We cannot be left in uncertainty over a possible Russian hybrid attack”, Calenda said.

KNDS, the French-German defence group the factory belongs to, said the circumstances are still being investigated. The plant near Rome produces medium and large calibre ammunition for land and naval systems, as well as solid rocket propellants. The Russian embassy in Italy did not comment on the incident.

The most awkward part is what is not known

Notice how this has been framed. The minister says there is not a single indication of an outside hand - which is accurate, but is not the same as saying there was no such hand. At the same time, prosecutors are checking links to Bulgaria. Those two sentences do not contradict each other, but together they send a message that is anything but clear.

Does Europe even have a way to distinguish an industrial accident from sabotage when it comes to facilities that directly feed the war effort in Ukraine? No ministry statement is going to close that question.