Thirty-three percent. That is how many Americans currently trust their president - the lowest figure Donald Trump has reached since he first entered the White House. Sixty-four percent say they disapprove of what he is doing. Only a few weeks ago the number was 35, which means the slide is not old news but fresh and still moving.

The reason is not hidden in some abstract political analysis. The war with Iran, waged alongside Israel, has disrupted around a fifth of the world's oil trade. What follows a sentence like that, everyone in the Balkans knows by heart: the price at the pump goes up, and the bills at home do not wait for diplomacy.

A war that will not end quickly - and both sides say so

The most interesting part of the poll is not the approval rating but one question on which America suddenly answered with one voice. Around 80 percent of respondents believe American involvement in Iran „will last a long time”. Among Democrats, 87 percent share that view. Among Republicans - 71 percent. Only 16 percent believe the matter will be wrapped up within a few weeks.

When your own electorate tells you it sees no way out, that is no longer a party split. That is an admission. The poll covered 1,166 adult Americans, with a margin of error of three percentage points - narrow enough that the result cannot be written off as statistical noise.

Iran has meanwhile largely blocked maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The direct fighting has quietened; the pressure on the economy has not. This is the phase of a conflict that rarely makes headlines and lasts the longest - when nobody is shooting and everybody is paying.

The promises and the bill

Trump came to power on two main promises: he would stop inflation, and he would not drag America into long wars. Eighteen months later both sit open on the table in front of the voters, and the congressional elections are approaching. Republicans in the House are reading that same number - 33 - and know exactly what it means for them in November.

Can public anger really change the course of a foreign policy? In the Balkans we have watched governments survive worse numbers, simply because the opposition was weaker than their rating. The question is not how many people are angry - the question is who has the alternative.