The next wave of price rises may not come from the petrol pump but from the bread shelf. According to estimates by Oxford Economics, global food prices could rise by 11.8 percent in 2026 and another 4.8 percent in 2027.

Before that number sparks panic, it is worth reading what it actually means. It is a projection for a global index of food commodity prices - not for the bill a consumer pays at the till. Oxford Economics itself warns that a rise in commodities does not pass automatically, or at the same percentage, into retail. The final price depends on domestic production, imports, transport, energy and processing.

When, and on what

The hit will not arrive all at once. With fresh fruit and vegetables, production disruptions reach consumers within two to three months - so the first wave is expected in October and November. With bread, pasta, cheese, oil and other processed food the process takes longer because of stocks, contracts and distribution, so the strongest pass-through is expected between February and May 2027.

Wheat is the most exposed. Oxford Economics estimates its price in the third quarter of 2026 could be around 36 percent higher than the same period last year, with a projected price of 6.92 dollars per bushel. That does not mean bread will get 36 percent dearer, but it does mean pressure on flour, bakery products, pasta and cereals.

Why this is happening

The reason is not one bad harvest but three pressures at once. First, the weather: after summer heat and drought in Europe, the Coceral association cut its forecast for the EU and UK grain harvest from 295.5 to 286.6 million tonnes. For comparison, around 310 million tonnes were gathered in 2025 - a difference of over 23 million tonnes in one year. In Germany, grain output is expected to fall by around seven percent, to roughly 41.9 million tonnes.

Second, costs. Global diesel prices in July were around 36 percent higher year on year, and fertiliser prices could rise 22 percent this year. Wheat is particularly dependent on fertiliser, which leaves it doubly exposed.

Third, wars and disrupted trade routes - the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East, Ukraine.

Where Macedonia sits in all this

The domestic wheat harvest offers a degree of security, but farmers depend on imported fuel, fertiliser and inputs, and the food industry on energy, transport and raw materials. In a small, open economy, rises in those items gradually spill into domestic prices.

For now, though, the official statistics show no panic. According to the State Statistical Office, total inflation in July 2026 was 0.1 percent against June and 2.3 percent against July last year. Food and non-alcoholic drinks were 1.1 percent cheaper in July than in the previous month.

The global picture is not one-directional either. In July, global food commodity prices were around one percent higher than a year earlier, with cereals up 6.9 percent and vegetable oils up around 17.3 percent. That is an important counterweight to alarming headlines.

The region, meanwhile, shows how different national risks can be. In Croatia, agriculture ministry adviser Tatjana Radic said talks with experts mention possible rises of 20 to 30 percent, and under certain scenarios up to 40 percent in 2027 - but that estimate is tied to the state of Croatian agriculture.

So: there is no projection under which food here will get 11.8 percent dearer, and anyone passing that figure off as a domestic forecast either has not read the full analysis, or is hoping you will not. What is real is that the coming months carry risk, and how much of it reaches the checkout will depend on the domestic harvest, on stocks, and on importers' contracts.