Diesel in Macedonia has broken through the 100 denar per litre mark. The maximum price is now 101.5 denars - a rise of 3.5 denars under the latest decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission. Petrol is up by 1.5 denars: Eurosuper BS-95 will cost 93, and BS-98 - 95 denars per litre.

The number that shows the real picture, though, is not today's adjustment but the comparison with the start of the year. On 28 February, when the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, diesel cost 71 denars per litre, BS-95 - 73.5, and BS-98 - 75.5 denars.

So: diesel has risen by over 30 denars per litre, around 43 percent. Petrol is up almost 20 denars, or around 26 percent. In six months.

What that means at the pump

Calculated on a 50-litre tank, the difference becomes tangible. Filling up with diesel now costs 5,075 denars, against 3,550 denars on 28 February - 1,525 denars more per tank. Fifty litres of BS-95 now takes 4,650 denars, which is 975 more than the 3,675 it cost when the strikes began.

For someone who fills up twice a month, that is around 3,000 denars more every month on diesel alone, without a single other thing in their life having changed.

The state stepped in. It did not help enough.

The heaviest blow landed right after the war started - on 9 March the Regulatory Commission passed a decision that pushed diesel up by 14.5 denars, to 85.5 per litre. The government then intervened with fiscal measures: VAT on fuel was cut from 18 to 10 percent, and excise duties were reduced by four denars on diesel and two on petrol.

Those measures are still in force. Prices kept climbing anyway. On 7 July BS-95 cost 85.5 and diesel 82.5 denars. Three weeks later - 93 and 98.5. Today - 93 and 101.5.

In other words: without the reduced VAT and the reduced excise, diesel today would not cost 101.5 denars but considerably more. The fiscal measure did not stop the rise - it only slowed the speed of the climb.

The Regulatory Commission points out that the set prices are maximums, meaning traders are free to sell cheaper. In practice that rarely happens - the maximum price tends to become the price.

The rise comes amid prolonged instability on the global oil market because of the war with Iran and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. That is a real external factor Skopje has no influence over. What it does have influence over is what happens next - whether the fiscal reserve is spent, and how much longer the reduced excise duties can hold before the budget speaks up.