The number that says the most does not come from the commodity markets. It comes from the State Statistical Office: food and drink take 50.1 percent of the total household budget in Macedonia. Half a salary just to eat. Everything else - electricity, rent, medicine, children - comes out of the other half.

That is why a global forecast is not an abstract headline from London. According to an analysis by Oxford Economics, world food prices will rise by 11.8 percent in 2026, and another 4.8 percent in 2027. The heaviest pressure is expected on cereals, fresh vegetables and dairy.

What the indices show

The FAO food price index recorded a monthly rise of 0.6 percent in July - modest. But the cereal index jumped 3.4 percent in a single month, and the world price of wheat rose 5.8 percent. Analysts expect it to be around 36 percent higher in the third quarter compared with the same period last year.

The causes are no mystery. Heatwaves cut yields at the major producers. Fertiliser prices are expected to rise 22 percent this year, and diesel in July was already 36 percent more expensive than a year earlier. The European association Coceral has cut its forecast for the EU and UK grain harvest to 286.6 million tonnes, against roughly 310 million last year. Germany alone expects a 7 percent drop, to 41.9 million tonnes.

Here: one shield and one exposure

Macedonia has a degree of protection on wheat thanks to last year's harvest of over 300,000 tonnes, which according to the Ministry of Agriculture covers domestic needs. That is a real advantage and it is worth saying so.

The exposure is somewhere else. The food industry and the mills are tied to electricity, imported raw materials, packaging and transport. No silo full of wheat pays the mill's electricity bill. Complete insulation from the commodity markets therefore does not exist, however good the harvest was.

Additional pressure comes from inside. In July, input costs for Macedonian farmers were 4.1 percent higher, while purchase prices fell 5.5 percent. The farmer is squeezed from both sides at once, which is exactly why there is no room for him to absorb the coming increases himself.

When it will show

The effect will not arrive all at once. The forecasts split it into two waves: October and November 2026 for fresh fruit and vegetables, then February to May 2027 for processed goods, bread, pasta and dairy.

That is a fairly long stretch of a situation announced in advance. Long enough for somebody in the government to work out what 11.8 percent means for a budget where food already takes half. Has that calculation been done at all, or will it show up as a surprise somewhere in November?