Geopolitics is once again dictating energy prices - and it's felt from the Persian Gulf to the pump on the corner. The price of „Brent” crude climbed on Wednesday to around 94 dollars a barrel, the highest level in the past five weeks, as investors weigh the risks of a new escalation between the US and Iran and possible supply disruptions from the Middle East.

The numbers are clear. „Brent” traded at around 94.66 dollars a barrel, up almost four percent, while American WTI crude reached about 87.79 dollars. Behind the rise are heightened tensions in the Middle East, limited OPEC+ production and the fear that the conflict could disrupt transport routes and global energy flows.

The background is frighteningly concrete. After the military strikes between Washington and Tehran, the Ansar Allah movement announced a blockade of the Saudi ports on the Red Sea - the same ports to which Saudi Arabia had redirected shipments to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Every new strike or restriction could push the price up again.

But for now the market isn't expecting a full, prolonged disruption. Analysts estimate that geopolitical events can cause short-term spikes, but without a serious disruption of production, „Brent” will likely stay in the 90-to-100-dollar zone. In other words, the market is paying a higher „risk premium,” but isn't yet betting on a lasting 110 dollars.

And here comes the part that concerns us directly, but without empty phrases. Expensive oil hits import-dependent countries hardest - India, which imports over 85 percent of the oil it needs, faces bigger bills, renewed inflationary pressure and a deepening deficit. For an economy that imports all its fuel, every dollar over 90 isn't an abstract stock-market number. The markets are watching three things: the Middle East, OPEC+ and global demand. And the question left hanging over the region is familiar from before - when the big powers fight over oil, who ends up paying the difference?