By Monday, the government has to decide whether the reduced VAT rate on diesel will stay in place for another two weeks. Meanwhile, a barrel of Brent crude is trading at around 105 dollars, two dollars more than last Friday, when it stood at about 103.

For now, the measures are keeping diesel cheap. On top of the reduced VAT on diesel, excise duty on all fuels has been cut by four denars. According to the platform fuel-prices.eu, Macedonia is among the countries with the cheapest diesel in Europe, at an average of around 1.70 euros per liter. The maximum price under the latest decision by the Energy Regulatory Commission (RKE) is 104.5 denars per liter.

The comparison with the neighbors is telling. In Serbia and Slovenia, diesel costs over two euros a liter, in Greece around 2.2 euros, in Croatia around 1.9. The most expensive fill-up is in Denmark, over 2.5 euros. For gasoline, Macedonia, at around 1.6 euros a liter, is the third cheapest in Europe, after Turkey and Sweden.

A price with an expiry date

But a low price at the pump isn't a gift from the market. It's a state measure with an expiry date. On September 22, the RKE raised the maximum diesel price by 5.5 denars, while gasoline got 1.5 denars cheaper. That's how fast the world market reaches our pumps.

And the world diesel market is under pressure. Deliveries from the Middle East and Russia are down, refineries are producing less, and the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz drags on. US and Iranian negotiators in New York are looking at a phased deal to reopen the strait. Until that happens, nobody can seriously promise stable prices.

The prime minister has announced additional measures "if necessary" on several occasions. Monday will show whether "necessary" means extending the reduced VAT or going back to the full rate. And the question that remains is how long the budget can keep diesel cheap if the crisis doesn't end soon.