Montenegro is approaching the 20th anniversary of its renewed independence in 2026, and is already sending out invitations to the celebration. One of them reached Belgrade. Aleksandar Vučić, asked by journalists, answered without much manoeuvring: "Of course I will not take part. To celebrate secession - I would be ashamed."

The sentence is not a diplomatic slip. It is a political position deliberately spoken. Twenty years since the renewal of Montenegrin independence (May 2006) is an anniversary Podgorica wants to turn into a spectacle - but in Belgrade that date is still not read as a holiday, but as a parting. Vučić told that to his neighbour without much wrapping.

The context matters. Relations between Serbia and Montenegro in recent years have moved between cold peace and open tension - over the Serbian Orthodox Church, over dual citizenship, over positions on sanctions against Russia. Milojko Spajić now leads the Montenegrin cabinet with a pro-European agenda, but the history of 2006 still smoulders in Serbian politics like a torn finger.

Vučić used the press questions to push on another front too. He spoke about NIS (Oil Industry of Serbia) - voicing satisfaction that there are several interested buyers and that two of them have "around two billion euros" ready. The intent is clear - a signal to Moscow, a signal to Brussels, and a signal at home: no price is too high if it locks in positions before elections.

On elections, Vučić spoke without too much romance. He accepted being in "a loser's position" while the opposition enjoys a "win-win" scenario, and that in the end the citizens will decide. That is a strange line from a politician in his position - but Vučić is shrewd enough to know that such rhetoric in the media creates the illusion of calm, while positions are being built in the background.

For Balkan readers, the story has several layers. First: that the celebration in Podgorica will be one more item in the catalogue of regional tensions, not reconciliations. Second: that Vučić demonstrates again that in Serbian politics, the secession of Montenegro is still read as a "tragedy," not as "history's ruling." And third - that fewer and fewer ruling politicians in the region risk sending a symbolic delegation, even when diplomacy nudges them. The Balkans speak through presence and absence. This time, the absence will speak loudly.