Vučić Sees an Alibi in the Russian Diesel Deal: Serbia Is No Longer the Only One Not Sanctioning Russia

In Washington, the Russian diesel deal is being sold as a way to get cheaper fuel. In Belgrade, Aleksandar Vučić reads it differently. Speaking live on social media, the head of the "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia" electoral list said the agreement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin changes things in the world - strategically. "Not because of 300,000 tonnes or several million tonnes of diesel, those are trifles. Much more important is that the Americans have thereby broken the chain of sanctions that exists against the Russian Federation," he said.

The statement didn't go unnoticed in Moscow. Russian media, including RBC and TASS, highlighted his assessment that Washington was the first to step back from the policy of sanctions pressure on Russia. According to RBC, Vučić described Trump as a pragmatic leader trying to solve America's domestic economic problems - above all, high fuel prices.

The numbers behind the deal are concrete. On 9 October, after a phone call between Trump and Putin, the US Treasury issued General License No. 135, which until 7 April 2027 permits transactions related to the sale, transport and import of Russian diesel, including into the American market. Trump announced that Russia would first deliver more than 300,000 tonnes, then another 500,000 tonnes in November and a further million tonnes later.

Responding to estimates that Moscow could earn six to seven billion dollars, Vučić noted that production and delivery swallow 60 to 70 percent of that sum. The political gain, he said, is far greater: Russia gets a chance to break Western unity on sanctions and further deepen the rifts between Washington and European capitals.

And then comes the part meant for the home audience. According to Vučić, Serbia is no longer alone in its decision not to sanction Russia, because now not even the US can be said to be fully enforcing the existing restrictions. At the same time, he warned that he expects even stronger European pressure on Belgrade to join the sanctions - even though Washington itself has decided to loosen some of its measures.

The logic is familiar to anyone who follows Balkan politics: when the big players change the rules, the smaller ones look for proof that they were right all along. Belgrade has been balancing between Brussels and Moscow for years. Does one diesel deal really change that equation - or does it just hand the election campaign a new argument?