From midnight, a litre of eurodiesel costs 104.50 denars. That is 5.50 denars more than the previous 99, in a single price revision. The Energy Regulatory Commission took the decision on Sunday afternoon, effective from 00:01 on 22 September.

In the same decision, petrol gets cheaper by 1.50 denars. EUROSUPER BS-95 now costs 99 denars and EUROSUPER BS-98 costs 101 denars per litre. Which produces something Macedonian pumps have not shown in a long time: diesel costs more than either grade of petrol.

Extra-light household heating oil falls by 7 denars to 102.50 denars per litre. Mazut M-1 NS rises by 1.835 denars to 50.078 denars per kilogram.

Why diesel, and not crude

The explanation is in how the price is calculated, and it is worth understanding, because it produces the same bafflement every single time. The regulator does not only look at the price of crude. It uses the five-day average price of refined diesel on the Mediterranean market - an entirely different product with entirely different dynamics.

Last week, refined diesel on the Mediterranean exchange rose 7 percent on disrupted Middle East supply and reduced reserves. At the same time, the dollar strengthened against the denar by around 1 percent. While all of that was feeding into the average, the price of crude was falling for a third consecutive day - Brent, recently above 108 dollars a barrel, slid towards 103.

So: crude falls, diesel jumps. Both statements are true at the same moment, and that is exactly why every price announcement looks like it contradicts the market news. It does not. What goes into your tank simply is not called crude - it is a refined product, with its own market, its own shortages and its own speculators.

What is left for the driver is simple arithmetic. A full 50-litre diesel tank costs 275 denars more this morning than it did last night. For someone driving the same route every day, that is not exchange statistics - it is a weekly cost nobody announced in advance.