Finance minister Gordana Dimitrieska-Kočoska has confirmed that in 2027 Macedonia is due to issue a new eurobond of around 1.3 billion euros. There is no final government decision yet, but preparations are under way.

From there a political fight began in which both sides throw billions around like loose change, and nobody explains to the citizen which part of it is new debt and which part is a replacement for old debt.

What falls due in 2027

According to the minister, the obligations maturing next year come from previously issued securities and short-term treasury bills worth around 1.1 billion euros, plus financing a budget deficit of 3.5 percent of GDP.

"When you add that to those amounts, it is 1.5 billion and it is clear what the obligation is that we have to repay next year," Dimitrieska-Kočoska said. She called the opposition's claim of four billion euros of borrowing over two years "their cheerful arithmetic", explaining that repayments have to be taken into account too.

She says public debt is now below 59 percent of GDP, and pointed to economic growth of 4.3 percent in the second quarter and industrial output up 1.3 percent year on year.

What the other side says

SDSM claims the new borrowing is taking the country towards a total debt of around 12 billion euros and a public debt share above 65 percent of GDP. Party leader Venko Filipče put the question bluntly: if the economy really is doing that well, why is the state borrowing more rather than less?

The government replies that such a calculation adds up the new borrowing without subtracting the debts being repaid at the same time.

The question both sides are dodging

Refinancing genuinely is not the same kind of debt as new borrowing. When the state takes 1.1 billion in order to repay 1.1 billion, the net position does not change. That is true, and the opposition keeps quiet about it.

But there is a second part of the bill the government talks about far less - the deficit. Those 3.5 percent of GDP refinance nothing. That is pure new debt added to the pile, and it appears every year, regardless of which obligation happens to mature.

So the row over whether the total figure is four billion or two covers up the question that actually decides the future: how long can an economy growing at four percent keep spending more than it collects, and at what interest rate will that gap be borrowed in 2027?

Neither side has an answer to that. One counts gross, the other counts net, and the same budget pays the interest.