EU inflation jumps to 3.8 percent, Macedonia's is 2.7 - and the union consumer basket got 4,355 denars pricier in a year

Europe is heating up again, and not in a good way. According to Eurostat, annual inflation in September reached 3.8 percent in both the European Union and the eurozone, up from 3.2 percent in August. Inflation rose in 23 of the 27 member states, stayed unchanged in three and fell in only one.

The main culprit is energy. In the eurozone it was 18.8 percent more expensive year on year, after 14.3 percent in August, and on its own contributed 1.71 percentage points to overall inflation. Services rose by 3.2 percent, and food, alcohol and tobacco by 1.4 percent. Things are hardest in Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Bulgaria, a eurozone member since the start of 2026, had 5.6 percent inflation in September. At the other end is Sweden, at one percent.

Macedonia, according to the State Statistical Office, had annual inflation of 2.7 percent in September, and compared with August prices didn't move on average. That is 1.1 percentage points below the European average, although the figures aren't fully comparable: Eurostat uses a harmonised index, while the Macedonian figure is based on the national cost-of-living index.

The average hides what is getting more expensive

Behind the "unchanged" monthly index are very different movements. Transport got 3.4 percent cheaper, and recreation, sport and culture 3.7 percent cheaper. But food and non-alcoholic drinks rose by 0.5 percent in a single month, and by 1.7 percent year on year. Housing, water, electricity and fuels rose by 0.2 percent, clothing and footwear by 0.3, and education by 0.4 percent.

The Federation of Trade Unions of Macedonia gives a more concrete picture. The minimum union consumer basket in September stood at 69,432 denars - 757 denars more than in August and 4,355 denars more than in September last year. Food and drink alone cost a family 25,259 denars a month, more than a third of the whole basket.

There is also a signal that hasn't reached the shelves yet. Import prices for coke and refined petroleum products in August were 17.2 percent higher than in July. That doesn't mean petrol at the pump will go up by that much, but pricier fuels can feed through into transport, delivery and production - and from there into the prices of other goods.

Inflation measures speed, not level. When it slows down, prices don't go back - they just rise more slowly. One man in a street vox pop says a kilo of pork has gone from 250 denars to 500 or 600. That isn't official statistics, but it is the number people remember. How good is the news of 2.7 percent for a family spending more than 25,000 denars a month on food and drink alone?