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The average interest rate on total loans stood at 4.67 percent in June - down 0.02 percentage points on May and 0.36 points on June last year. The headline says loans are getting cheaper. That is true. But there is a detail in the National Bank's data that complicates that headline.
Existing loans are getting cheaper. New ones are not.
For households, the average rate on total loans stood at 5.02 percent in June, 0.42 percentage points lower than a year ago. But on newly approved loans to citizens, the rate reached 4.71 percent - a rise of 0.07 percentage points in a single month. The same applies to companies: total corporate loans fell to 4.31 percent, while new ones climbed to 4.25 percent, up 0.03 points month on month. The reason, according to the data, is the rising cost of foreign-currency loans.
So if you already have a loan, your monthly instalment is slowly cooling. If you go to take out a new one, from this month you pay a little more than last. That is a distinction that rarely makes the headlines, and it is exactly the one shaping the decision of anyone now weighing up whether to buy a flat.
Deposits: the banks are finally fighting over your money
The average interest rate on total deposits stayed practically unchanged at 2.17 percent. But on newly received deposits the picture is different: 2.54 percent market-wide, and for households as much as 2.74 percent - up 0.21 percentage points in a month and 0.41 points in a year. For companies the rise is steeper still: new corporate deposits carry 2.20 percent, a jump of 0.49 percentage points in one month.
That growth comes mostly from higher rates on denar deposits without a currency clause. In other words, the banks want domestic savings in denars and are prepared to pay for them. When a bank offers you more for the money you bring in, that is usually not generosity - it is a sign they need liquidity.
What an ordinary person should do with this
First, the gap between 2.17 percent on an existing deposit and 2.74 percent on a new one is not small change. For an older deposit that simply sits there and renews automatically, it is worth at least checking whether your bank is giving you the current rate or one from two years ago.
Second, if you are considering a new loan, pay attention to the currency. The National Bank's data show clearly where the increase sits: in foreign-currency loans, for households and companies alike.
The National Bank assesses that the movements result from changes across different types of loans and deposits and from conditions on the financial market. A formulation that says very little. The data, by contrast, say quite enough: the price of old debt is falling, the price of new debt is rising, and the competition for your savings has only just begun.
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