Vučić has already "counted" Serbia's election before the vote: he expects 2,050,000 votes and a lead of at least 400,000

Serbia goes to a snap parliamentary election on 25 October, and Aleksandar Vučić - this time heading the "Aleksandar Vučić - United Serbia" list and running for prime minister - already has the numbers. In a TV appearance six days before the vote, he said he expects a turnout of around 4,100,000 voters, of whom 2,050,000 would vote for his list.

That is not all. Vučić expects a lead of at least 400,000 votes over his main rival, the "Student List", and claims that anything above 63 percent turnout gives his side a significantly bigger share of the vote. "It is important that we have an absolute majority," he said. He also promised that if he happens to lose, he will concede immediately.

When a politician knows the outcome this precisely before the polling stations open, there are usually two explanations: excellent polls or a great deal of self-confidence. Vučić says it is the former - "We do surveys every day", with a margin of error of 0.1 to 0.3. They will know the winner around half past nine in the evening, he says, but he will not address the public before ten.

The campaign, however, long ago spilled beyond Serbia. According to Vučić, Milo Đukanović and Milojko Spajić from Montenegro, Albin Kurti from Pristina and Croatian MEP Tonino Picula all share the same goal - to bring him down. "Why does Vučić bother Albin Kurti? Because Kurti knows that one way or another, without Vučić he will get an independent Kosovo," he said. He also mentioned Republika Srpska, asking why the "Student List" had not once replied to the students there.

He predicted that chaos will reign among his opponents after the election, while he will look for a government of "efficient and fast people". Which minority parties he takes along, he will decide once the votes are counted.

The picture is familiar: the election is presented as a referendum on one man, and the neighbours are cast as the opponent's cheerleaders. If the result is already known, why is every neighbour part of the plot? On 25 October we will see whether voters confirm the forecast - or correct it.